Shunned by rich donors, Cameroon opposition may soon regret....

A good rule for determining who is likely to win the next legislative, council and presidential elections has always been " follow the money". Applying the rule now it will be a brave punter who bet on the opposition.

Alhadji Abbo, Mohamadou Danpullo, Hayatou, Fadil, Kadji, Fotso, James Onobiono, Siaka, Hafis Ruefli, Yerima Dawa and many more unknown Cameroon multi millionaires fear the opposition can`t win the next election and therefore don`t wish to throw away their money.

 It is presumably also because they find so little in the party`s policies to inspire them to give generously or to give at all.....".I don`t think the opposition is representing core opposition voters or values...." said Yerima Dawa , who used to be a strong supporter to Bello Bouba Maigari`s political party. Other plutocrats are being similarly careful with their wallets.

 While some like Protais A, acting president of E-Cam, a leading employers`organisation have drastically cut their donations, others are giving nothing and it is possible some will never give again.

The problem for the Cameroon opposition is that they have come to rely on huge donations from small number of people to remain solvent. So when those people stop giving, revenue plummets, along with the means to conduct election campaigns.

Cameroon opposition prefer the big-hitter approach to the old method of raising much of their money from activists in constituency parties and from the State,

How irritating for party leaders to see these grassroots members who pay subscriptions and buy raffle tickets and who like to think they are participating in a form of democracy, and then expect to be given a say on important political matters. The former Head of State pictured above, Ahmadou Ahidjo during his 25 years in power has crushed the opposition and the freedom of expression and association. In hiding many Human Rights`activists spent time criticising the policies Mr Ahidjo was following.

The truth is that some of the opposition leaders owe their position to those same rank-and file members because they voted for them handsomely,

However, i know from talking to several of them that they have grave doubts about other important policies and have stopped donations because they hold out little hope of the President, Paul Biya changing course and doing what they regard is sensible.

Opposition in Cameroon want two things above all. The first is a change of direction in the electoral procedure and mechanism, specially along the lines of the International community suggestions and recommendation on ways of improving the country electoral system.

 The second one will be on the direction of the economic and measure of boosting that in creating growth along the lines of  employers leading organisation, Gicam, Mecam, E-Cam, Gfac and many more..And when the opposition can`t secure the support of  businesses, it is in serious trouble.

Why Cameroon opposition is divided over how to handle the after-Biya question

Against a background of increasingly strident rhetoric, Cameroonian politicians and activists have been lining up to establish their credentials as hawks or doves as the government considers its option on the vexed question of an alternation or political transition after Paul Biya, national chairman of the Cameroon People Democratic Movement  (CPDM) and the acting Head of State.

Tradition holds that the president of the Cameroon Republic matters about as much as an anonymous leader of a strong opposition party. Modern commentators and journalists are no less scornful.

With a belligerent Head Of State in power for nearly 30 years most of the attention has been centred on the unknown successor who has let it be known that unless France, Great Britain, China, Russia and the United States toughen its stance against Biya`s decision to nominate his successor;

Next month, Paul Biya will travel to New York for the opening of the United Nations General Assembly.

 According to Cameroon diplomats, Paris, Washington and London offices are working to arrange a meeting between Barack Obama, Francois Hollande and David Cameron in order to seek three commitments, namely a promise that the US, France and the UK will increase the level of their financial support to the country after his departure from the power.

( In the picture Ahidjo shaking hands with Paul Biya...)

From Switzerland,where Biya and his entourage are on holidays break,  Hafis Ruefli,.leader of a political movement calling for a national citizens advice  in Cameroon would like the introduction of a tight deadline for negotiations with leaders of the largest world economic and industrialised countries.and that if these don`t work, some members of the opposition in Cameroon will join forces in a decisive action to force Biya to stand down. Ruefis is not alone in cranking up the pressure.

 John Fru Ndi leader of the Social Democratif Front (SDF), Adamu Ndam Njoya of the (CDU), Lady kah Walla, former SDF member,  Albert Ndzongang of the Dynamic,   and a coalition of small political parties named G7  have already announced that while a decision had not been taken by Biya to publicly declare who could possibly become his successor, the detailed plans to act had already been drawn up and were simply awaiting implementation.

The mutual dislike felt by both sides, government and the strong opposition means that Paul Biya will never sit by and allow the opposition to produce a workable plan that could bring peace and prosperity in Cameroon. However, this time around the talk between the government and the opposition is not confined to the possibility of war. 

The bottom line is that very few Cameroonians mainly outside the country, ( France, Belgium, US, UK,Germany,Chad...etc..)  want to ignite a war which would cause chaos in Cameroon, plunge the Central Africa region into a new economic downturn and cause huge numbers of unnecessary deaths.

 By the same token every Cameroonian wants to live in peace without the threat of uprising or a revolution at the hands of a group of political organisations whose leaders are pronounced undecided and unctuous.

Anger as Biya refuses to reveal secret dossier on risks of an alternation of power...

CPDM Ministers are refusing to make public a secret dossier drawn up to identify the risks to Cameroon after Paul Biya`s presidency.

The decision to block release of the internal risk situation on the 2013 poll means voters will not be able to find out the potential hazards flagged up by Cameroon government civil servants.

The refusal to publish, which the SDF has put down to the CPDM`s secrecy obsession will now be investigated by a coalition of opposition parties represented in the National Assembly and organisations from the civil society in accordance with the Parliament`s regulation.

Risk situations which are compiled by the government bodies to outline the dangers of policies, shot up the political agenda last year during the debate over Cameroon Coalition government`s controversial corruption and embezzlement's trial of former members of the government and former Chief Executive Officers of state owned companies  within the so called " Operation Epervier" or the systematic cleaning of likely challengers to the presidency.

Activists and freedom of expression campaigners think that there is a huge considerable public interest in disclosure and therefore the government should release the information. Alex Gustave Ahttp://www.facebook.com/alex.gustave  a human rights activist said " there is nothing the public hates more than hypocrisy".

Although the Government confirmed holding the documents, the request was turned down on the grounds that Ministers required time for seeking individually private advice. The coalition government has no real intention of publishing the risk situations before the 2013 poll is held.

Joseph M. Ndam, leader of the SDF parliamentary group at the National Assembly said that the decision to block release of the risk dossier comes amid fears Paul Biya is taking an unduly conservative attitude towards the freedom of expression and information from the constitution.

An internal review of the decision also backed secrecy with officials noting that the situation was an assessment based on what might hypothetically happen rather than fact. 

The review, conducted by a group of officials in the government`s department of strategic and policy forecast, concluded that it was in the public interest for Ministers to receive advice which includes a comprehensive assessment of all risk.